Saturday, March 24, 2007

How about those sub prime lenders? How will their actions affect the mortgage business? How will appraisers look at property values? How will underwriters look to approve loans? How will we get houses sold for our sellers and get loans for our clients with special circumstances? The mortgage banking business is on edge after this week's stock market crash as a result of the sub prime lenders who said "fog this mirror and you can get a loan" because the government is now launching investigations. Lenders are being conservative because they don't want to be scrutinized. Many programs have been "pulled" in anticipation of potential government sanctions. It is a classic case of a few rotten apples spoiling the bunch. Property values aren't skyrocketing like they were when many of these loans were originated and in many areas of the country, they are on the decline. As a result, too much debt was refinanced as mortgage debt and too many people are upside down with debt to value ratios. In other situations, people were placed in inappropriate loan programs and now can't make the adjusted payments because their income levels aren't increasing. What does this all add up too? More foreclosures. In 2006, in the United States, there were 700,000 foreclosures. Year to date in 2007, there are already over 900,000 foreclosures and with current delinquencies and forecasted numbers, the "experts" are predicting 1,500,000 foreclosures by the end of the year. Our area boasts the lowest foreclosure rate in the country at 8 per 10,000 loans. The highest in the country is 28/10,000.

Now, how about our market? It appears that we are approaching the Spring market. Inventory levels are creeping up slightly but that is typical for this time of year as some sellers are trying to get a "jump" on the typical Spring market. Sales levels remain remain strong compared to numbers of last Fall and Winter, rates have crept below last year's levels and our area proves to be a great place to live. The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation ranked Virginia 8th in the "New Economy" index which ranks 26 separate categories moving from an "industrial" economy to the "new" economy. From an affordability standpoint we rank 22nd in the country. Low on the list when corporations are looking to relocate. IT jobs in our area are forecasted to increase this year in recent survey by Robert Half Technology who polled CIT officers. Plus we are still number 1 in Federal Procurement spending and have moved to #3 in job creation. All good reasons to be optimistic about our future in real estate.